Momentum Trading With Discipline

To engage in momentum trading, you must have the mental focus to remain steadfast when things are going your way and to wait when targets are yet to be reached. Momentum trading requires a massive display of discipline, a rare personality attribute that makes short-term momentum trading one of the more difficult means of making a profit. Let's look at a few techniques that can aid in establishing a personal system for success in momentum trading.

Techniques for Entry
The impulse system, a system designed by Dr. Alexander Elder for identifying appropriate entry points for trading on momentum, uses one indicator to measure market inertia and another to measure market momentum. To identify market inertia, you can use an exponential moving average (EMA) for finding uptrends and downtrends. When EMA rises, the inertia favors the bulls, and when EMA falls, inertia favors the bears. To measure market momentum, the trader uses the moving-average-convergence-divergence (MACD) histogram, which is an oscillator displaying a slope reflecting the changes of power among bulls and bears. When the slope of the MACD histogram rises, the bulls are becoming stronger. When it falls, the bears are gaining strength.

The system issues an entry signal when both the inertia and momentum indicators move in the same direction, and an exit signal is issued when these two indicators diverge. If signals from both the EMA and the MACD histogram point in the same direction, both inertia and momentum are working together toward clear uptrends or downtrends. When both the EMA and the MACD histogram are rising, the bulls have control of the trend, and the uptrend is accelerating. When both the EMA and MACD histogram fall, the bears are in control and the downtrend is paramount.

Refining Entry Points
The above principles for determining market inertia and momentum are used to identify entry points in a precise style of trading. If your period of comfort corresponds to the daily charts, then you should analyze the weekly chart to determine the relative bullishness or bearishness of the market. To determine the market's longer-term trend, you can use the 26-week EMA and the weekly MACD histogram on the weekly chart.

Once the long-term trend is gleaned, use your usual daily chart and look for trades only in the direction of the long-term weekly trend. Using a 13-day EMA and a 12-26-9 MACD histogram, you can wait for the appropriate signal from your daily comfort zone.

When the weekly trend is up, wait for both the 13-day EMA and MACD histogram to turn up. At this time, a strong buy signal is issued and you should enter a long position and stay with it until the buy signal disappears. By contrast, when the weekly trend is down, wait for the daily charts to show both the 13-day EMA and MACD histogram turning down. Such an occurrence will be a strong signal to go short, but you should remain ready to cover the short position at the very moment that your buy signal disappears.

Techniques for Exiting Positions
The major reason momentum trading can be successful in both choppy markets and markets with a strong trend is that we are searching not for long-term momentum but for short-term momentum. All markets trend within any given week, and the best stocks to trade are those that regularly exhibit strong intra-day trends. With that in mind, you must remember to step off the momentum train before it reaches the station.

As already mentioned, once you have identified and entered into a strong momentum trading opportunity (when daily EMA and MACD histogram are both rising), you should exit your position at the very moment either indicator turns down. The daily MACD histogram is usually (but not always) the first to turn, as the upside momentum begins to weaken. This turn, however, might not be a true sell signal but a result of the removal of the buy signal, which, for the impulse system, is enough impetus for you to sell.

When the weekly trend is down and the daily EMA and MACD histogram fall while you are in a short position, you should cover your shorts as soon as either of the indicators stops issuing a sell signal, when the downward momentum has ceased the most rapid portion of its descent. Your time to sell is before the trend reaches its absolute bottom. As contrasted with a carefully chosen entry point, the exit points require quick actions at the precise moment that your identified trend appears to be nearing its end.

The Bottom Line
As you have probably already noticed, the impulse system of trading on momentum is not a computerized or mechanical process. This is why human discipline continues to hold so much sway on your degree of success in momentum trading: you must remain stalwart in waiting for your "best" opportunity to enter a position, and agile enough to keep your focus on spotting the next exit signal.

The Credit Crisis And The Carry Trade

Broadly speaking, the term "carry trade" means borrowing at a low interest rate and investing in an asset that provides a higher rate of return. For example, assume that you can borrow $20,000 at an interest rate of 3% for one year; further assume that you invest the borrowed proceeds in a certificate of deposit that pays 6% for one year. After a year, your carry trade has earned you $600, or the difference between the return on your investment and the interest paid times the amount borrowed.

Of course, in the real world, opportunities like these rarely exist because the cost of borrowing funds is usually significantly higher than interest earned on deposits. But what if an investor wishes to invest low-cost funds in an asset that promises spectacular returns, albeit with a much greater degree of risk? In this case, we are referring to the currency, or forex, markets, where carry trades quickly became one of the most important strategies. These trades allowed some traders to rake in big profits, but they also played a part in the credit crisis that struck world economic systems in 2008.

A New Millennium for Carry TradesIn the 2000s, the term "carry trade" became synonymous with the "yen carry trade," which involved borrowing in the Japanese yen and investing the proceeds in virtually any asset class that promised a higher rate of return. The Japanese yen became a favored currency for the borrowing part of the carry trade because of the near-zero interest rates in Japan for much of this period. By early 2007, it was estimated that about U.S.$1 trillion had been invested in the yen carry trade.

Carry trades involving riskier assets are successful when interest rates are low and there is ample global appetite for risky assets. This was the case in the period from 2003 until the summer of 2007, when interest rates in a number of nations were at their lowest levels in decades, while demand surged for relatively risky assets such as commodities and emerging markets.

The unusual appetite for risk during this period could be gauged by the abnormally low level of volatility in the U.S. stock market (as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX), as well as by the low-risk premiums that investors were willing to accept (one measure of which was the historically low spreads of high-yield bonds and emerging market debt to U.S. government Treasury Bills (T-Bills).

Carry trades work on the premise that changes in the financial environment will occur gradually, allowing the investor or speculator ample time to close out the trade and lock in profits. But if the environment changes abruptly, investors and speculators could be forced to close their carry trades as expeditiously as possible. Unfortunately, such a reversal of innumerable carry trades can have unexpected and potentially devastating consequences for the global economy.

Why the Carry Trade WorksAs noted earlier, during the boom years of 2003-2007, there was large-scale borrowing of Japanese yen by investors and speculators. The borrowed yen was then sold and invested in a variety of assets, ranging from higher-yielding currencies, such as the euro, to U.S. subprime mortgages and real estate, as well as in volatile assets such as commodities and emerging market stocks and bonds.

In order to get more bang for their buck, large investors such as hedge funds used a substantial degree of leverage in order to magnify returns. But leverage is a double-edged sword - just as it can enhance returns when markets are booming, it can also amplify losses when asset prices are sliding.

As the carry trade gained momentum, a virtuous circle developed, whereby borrowed currencies such as the yen steadily depreciated, while the demand for risky assets pushed their prices higher.

It is important to note that currency risk in a carry trade is seldom, if ever, hedged. This meant that the carry trade worked like a charm as long as the yen was depreciating, and mortgage and commodity portfolios were providing double-digit returns. Scant attention was paid to early warning signs such as the looming slowdown in the U.S. housing market, which peaked in the summer of 2006 and then commenced its long multiyear slide.

Example - Leverage Cuts Both Ways in Yen Carry Trade Let's run through an example of a yen carry trade to see what can happen when the market is booming and when it goes bust. Borrow 100 million yen for one year at 0.50% per annum. Sell the borrowed amount and buy U.S. dollars at an exchange rate of 115 yen per dollar. Use this amount (approximately US$870,000) as 10% margin to acquire a portfolio of mortgage bonds paying 15%. The size of the mortgage bond portfolio is therefore $8.7 million (i.e. $870,000 is used as 10% margin, and the remaining 90%, or $7.83 million, is borrowed at 5%). After one year, assume the entire portfolio is liquidated and the yen loan is repaid. In this case, one of two things might occur: Scenario 1 (Boom Times) Assume the yen has depreciated to 120, and that the mortgage bond portfolio has appreciated by 20%. Total Proceeds = Interest on Bond Portfolio + Proceeds on Sale of Bond Portfolio = $1,305,000 + $10,440,000 = $11,745,000 Total Outflows = Margin Loan ($7.83 million principal + 5% interest) + Yen Loan (principal + 0.50% interest) = $8,221,500 + 100,500,000 yen = $8,221,500 + $837,500 = $9,059,000 Overall Profit = $2,686,000 Return on Investment = $2,686,000 / $870,000 = 310%

Scenario 2 (Boom Turns to Bust)Assume the yen has appreciated to 100, and that the mortgage bond portfolio has depreciated by 20%. Total Proceeds = Interest on Bond Portfolio + Proceeds on Sale of Bond Portfolio = $1,305,000 + $6,960,000 = $8,265,000 Total Outflows = Margin Loan ($7.83 million principal + 5% interest) + Yen Loan (principal + 0.50% interest) = $8,221,500 + 100,500,000 yen = $8,221,500 + $1,005,000 = $9,226,500 Overall Loss = $961,500 Return on Investment = -$961,500 / $870,000 = -110%

The Great Unraveling of the Yen Carry TradeThe yen carry trade became all the rage among investors and speculators, but by 2006, some experts began warning of the dangers that could arise if and when these carry trades were reversed or "unwound." These warnings went unheeded.

The global credit crunch that developed from August 2007 led to the gradual unraveling of the yen carry trade. A little over a year later, as the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the U.S. government rescue of AIG sent shockwaves through the global financial system, the unwinding of the yen carry trade commenced in earnest.

Speculators began to be hit with margin calls as prices of practically every asset began sliding. To meet these margin calls, assets had to be sold, putting even more downward pressure on their prices. As credit conditions tightened dramatically, banks began calling in the loans, many of which were yen-denominated. Speculators not only had to sell their investments at fire-sale prices, but also had to repay their yen loans even as the yen was surging. Repatriation of yen made the currency even stronger. In addition, the interest rate advantage enjoyed by higher-yielding currencies began to dwindle as a number of countries slashed interest rates to stimulate their economies.

The unwinding of the gigantic yen carry trade caused the Japanese currency to surge against major currencies. The yen rose as much as 29% against the euro in 2008. By February 2009, it had gained 19% against the U.S. dollar.

Carry Trade CasualtiesThe carry trade pushes asset prices to unsustainably high levels when the global economy is expanding. But rapid and unexpected changes in the financial environment can result in the virtuous circle quickly turning into a vicious one. In 2008, global financial markets suffered record declines after being hit by a deadly combination of slowing economic growth, an unprecedented credit crisis and a near-total collapse of consumer and investor confidence.

Large-scale unwinding of the carry trade can also result in plunging asset prices, especially under tight credit conditions, as speculators resort to panic liquidation and rush to get out of trading positions at any price. Numerous hedge funds and trading houses had to contend with huge losses in the aftermath of the unwinding of the yen carry trade.

Banks may also be affected if their borrowers are unable to repay their loans in full. But as the events of 2008 proved, the broad decline in asset prices had a much larger impact on their balance sheets. In 2008, financial institutions around the world recorded close to $1 trillion in charge-offs and write-downs related to U.S. mortgage assets.

The global economy was also severely affected, as the collapse in asset prices affected consumer confidence and business sentiment, and exacerbated an economic slowdown. Nations whose currencies were heavily involved in the carry trade (such as Japan) would also face economic headwinds, as an unusually strong domestic currency can render exports uncompetitive.

The Bottom LineCarry trades involving riskier assets are successful when interest rates are low and there is ample global appetite for risky assets. When boom times turn to bust, however, these trades have proved devastating for traders and for the broader markets.

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The Forex Three-Session System

One of the greatest features of the foreign exchange market is that it is open 24 hours a day. This allows investors from around the world to trade during normal business hours, after work or even in the middle of the night. However, not all times are created equal. Although there is always a market for this most liquid of asset classes, there are times when price action is consistently volatile and periods when it is muted. What's more, different currency pairs exhibit varying activity over certain times of the trading day due to the general demographic of those market participants who are online at the time. In this article, we will cover the major trading sessions, explore what kind of market activity can be expected over the different periods, and show how this knowledge can be adapted into a trading plan.

Breaking a 24-Hour Market into Manageable Trading SessionsWhile a 24-hour market offers a considerable advantage for many institutional and individual traders, because it guarantees liquidity and the opportunity to trade at any conceivable time, it also has its drawbacks. Although currencies can be traded anytime, a trader can only monitor a position for so long. This means that there will be times of missed opportunities, or worse - when a jump in volatility will lead the spot to move against an established position when the trader isn't around. To minimize this risk, a trader needs to be aware of when the market is typically volatile and decide what times are best for his or her strategy and trading style.

Traditionally, the market is separated into three sessions during which activity peaks: the Asian, European and North American sessions. More casually, these three periods are also referred to as the Tokyo, London and New York sessions. These names are used interchangeably, as the three cities represent the major financial centers for each of the regions. The markets are most active when these three powerhouses are conducting business as most banks and corporations make their day-to-day transactions and there is a greater concentration of speculators online. Now let's take a closer look at each of these sessions.

Asian Session (Tokyo)
When liquidity is restored to the forex (or, FX) market after the weekend passes, the Asian markets are naturally the first to see action. Unofficially, activity from this part of the world is represented by the Tokyo capital markets, which are live from midnight to 6 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time. However, there are many other countries with considerable pull that are present during this period including China, Australia, New Zealand and Russia, among others. Considering how scattered these markets are, it makes sense that the beginning and end of the Asian session are stretched beyond the standard Tokyo hours. Allowing for these different markets' activity, Asian hours are often considered to run between 11 p.m. and 8 a.m. GMT.

European Session (London)
Later in the trading day, just before the Asian trading hours come to a close, the European session takes over in keeping the currency market active. This FX time zone is very dense and includes a number of major financial markets that could stand in as the symbolic capital.

However, London ultimately takes the honors in defining the parameters for the European session. Official business hours in London run between 7:30 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. GMT. Once again, this trading period is expanded due to other capital markets' presence (including Germany and France) before the official open in the U.K.; while the end of the session is pushed back as volatility holds until the London fix after the close. Therefore, European hours are typically seen as running from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. GMT.

North American Session (New York)
By the time the North American session comes online, the Asian markets have already been closed for a number of hours, but the day is only halfway through for European traders. The Western session is dominated by activity in the U.S., with a few contributions from Canada, Mexico and a number of countries in South America. As such, it comes as little surprise that activity in New York City marks the high in volatility and participation for the session.

Taking into account the early activity in financial futures, commodity trading and the concentration of economic releases, the North American hours unofficially begin at noon GMT. With a considerable gap between the close of the U.S. markets and open of the Asian trading, a lull in liquidity sets the close of New York exchange trading at 8 p.m. GMT as the North American session closes.

Session	Major Market	Hours (GMT)
Asian Session	Tokyo	11 p.m. to 8 a.m.
European Session	London	7 a.m. to 4 p.m.
North American Session	New York	noon to 8 p.m.

Figure 1: Major market session hours

Figure 2: Three-market session overlap

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Measuring Market ActivityNow that we know when the Asian, European and North American sessions are and what markets comprise each, we should discuss how time and participation affect price action for different currencies.

As logic would suggest, a currency is typically most active when its own markets are open. For example, the euro, British pound and Swiss franc see higher volatility on average when the European session is active. This is the case because banks, businesses and traders from any specific country will use their domestic currency in the majority of their foreign exchange transactions.

What's more, it is more difficult for a market participant to buy or sell a currency from a region where all the major banks are closed. To illustrate this point, if a U.S. bank wants to make a multibillion-dollar currency exchange for euros, it would likely do so when European banks are online and there is a greater pool of liquidity. Otherwise, large orders in a thin market would result in prices moving away from the ideal entry point as the order is processed.

The above example further highlights another truism for the currency markets: price action is usually greatest when the sessions overlap. When traders, banks and business from two different sessions are online, there are more participants in the market and, therefore, a greater level of liquidity is available. Figure 3 (below) charts the average hourly range for the seven majors in the two years through 2007. A quick glance at this graph reveals what we would expect - two notable peaks in price action. The first rise in price action occurs around the closing hours of the Asian session and open of the European session (around 7 a.m. GMT). Before this peak, the markets in the Far East are carrying currency volatility alone. After the Japanese session closes, there is a clear drop in the ranges for most of the majors, as Asian liquidity quickly evaporates and leaves traders in Europe to keep the fires of volatility stoked.

The second and larger jump in activity is seen when the North American and European sessions converge (between noon and 4 p.m. GMT). This four-hour overlap is far greater than the Asian/European sessions' own union, and volatility clearly benefits from the greater period of liquidity. However, from this period we can see there is another factor at work in driving price action - otherwise there would not be a consistent dip across the majors at 1 p.m. GMT. This particular influence is the presence of fundamental releases.

Most of the top market moving indicators for the U.S. cross the wires at either noon or 2 p.m. GMT and thereby boost the average range for those times. In addition, while the influence of the U.S. data is the clearest example here, fundamentals from other key markets certainly influence price action as well. Another obvious instance of this dynamic is the typical release time for U.K. data (around 8 a.m. GMT), which coincides with a sharp peak in GBP/USD activity that goes beyond the Asian/European session overlap and cooling of the other major pairs.

Figure 3: Currency market volatility

Copyright Ó 2008 Investopedia.com

Another aspect to take into consideration is that while broad market activity typically follows the same trend as seen across the majors (a peak in volatility during the two session overlaps), each pair is unique depending on its two component currencies and which underlying sessions they belong to. For example, when a pair is made up of two currencies from the same session (let's say USD/CAD), there will likely be a relatively greater level of volatility during that session (the U.S. session) while price action is subsequently more muted during the market's other high points (the Asian/European session overlap).

In contrast, if the pair is a cross made of currencies that are most actively traded during Asian and European hours (like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY), there will be a greater response to the Asian/European session overlaps and a less dramatic increase in price action during the European/U.S. sessions' concurrence. Of course, the presence of scheduled event risk for each currency will still have a substantial influence on activity, regardless of the pair or its components' respective sessions.

Figure 4: A greater response to Asian/European session overlaps is shown in pairs that are actively traded during Asian and European hours.

Copyright Ó 2008 Investopedia.com

How to Weave This into a Trading StrategyThere are few things more important to successful trading than market activity. Even the best strategy could fall apart if it is applied during the wrong session. For long-term or fundamental traders, trying to establish a position during a pair's most active hours could lead to a poor entry price, a missed entry or a trade that counters the strategy's rules. On the other hand, for short-term traders who do not hold a position overnight, volatility is vital.

The Bottom LineWhen trading currencies, a market participant must first determine whether high or low volatility will work best with their personality and trading style. If more substantial price action is desired, trading the session overlaps or typical economic release times may be the preferable option. The next step would be to decide what times are best to trade given the bias for volatility. Following with a desire for high volatility, a trader will then need to determine what time frames are most active for the pair he or she is looking to trade.

When considering the EUR/USD pair, the European/U.S. session crossover will find the most movement. However, there are usually alternatives, and a trader should balance the need for favorable market conditions with physical well-being. If a market participant from the U.S. prefers to trade the active hours for GBP/JPY, he or she will have to wake up very early in the morning to keep up with the market. If this person has a regular day job, this could lead to exhaustion and errors in judgment when trading. A better alternative for this particular trader may be trading during the European/U.S. session overlap, where volatility is still elevated, even though Japanese markets are offline.

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